Is the HDB Resale market stabilising?
HDB resale prices increased by 1.9% in 1Q2023.
HDB resale prices had been increasing since 3Q2020 when there were delays in the delivery of Built-to-Order public subsidised flats.
The largest increase took place in 2021 where most quarters saw an increase of more than 3% quarter-on-quarter. In 4Q2022, we saw the first quarterly increase of under 2%.
The trend seems to indicate that HDB resale prices should be increasing by less than 2% through 2023.
Do you believe it is better to sell now when the price trend upwards is still strong?
Do you believe the current price trend of resale HDB is against the principle of affordable heavily subsidised housing?
How was the private residential market performance in June 2023?
In June 2023, sales of new launches (inclusive of Executive Condominium) dropped 73.2% month-on-month (May: increased by 16.1%)! Sales were robust despite the lack of new developments being launched.
Over 50% of the sales arose from sales for city fringe new units – The Reserve Residence.
Around 40% of the sales were in Core Central Region.
Buyers were finding value in buying units in CCR as the price gap of units between CCR and RCR narrowed, and there were also comparatively more units priced within the affordability range of most buyers.
What are the upcoming new launches?
There are six upcoming launches. Look out for CCR projects such as TMW Maxwell and Orchard Sophia, OCR projects such as The Shorefront, The Lakegarden Residences, The Arden, and an Executive Condominium named Altura.
Should you buy CCR rather than RCR when financially able?
Do you believe the lack of new units launched in June 2023 would result in buyers’ willingness to pay higher prices for new launches in July 2023?
Do you believe developers should build more CCR units given the increased demand by buyers?
Rent is so expensive!
Constructions are always delayed…and not delivered on time!
Resale condominiums are so expensive!
Buying resale would be giving up significant capital gains!
How?
Well, have you thought about buying condominiums that are near Temporary Occupation Period?
What is that?
A TOP is a government-issued document that allows residents to live in a completed development temporarily, while any final construction works were being completed.
Where to find them?!
The table below provides a listing of condominiums with expected TOP in 2023! You are spoilt with choices!
Based on SRX compilation, month-on-month HDB resale price has increased by 0.6% (May 2023: 0.3%) and year-on-year increased by 7.3% (May 2023: 7.2%), and resale volume decreased by 17.8% (May 2023: Increased by 4.8%).
The price increase was very gradual and buyers tend to resist price increases as reflected by the drop of 17.8% in resale volume.
Does the observed resale price growth apply across the whole of Singapore?
In June 2023, the year-on-year price increase was 7.2% (May 2023: 7.3%) in mature estate and 7.7% (May 2023: 8.1%) in non-mature estate.
HDB resale price increased by 0.4% (May 2023: 0.8%) for 3 room flats, 0.8% (May 2023: 0.7%) for 4 room flats and 1% (May 2023: drop 0.6%) for 5 rooms, and decreased by 1.1% (May 2023: Increased by 0.6%)for Executive flat type.
How about million-dollar flats?
Based on the SRX compilation in June 2023, there were 34 units,1.8% of total transacted volume (May 2023: 34 units, 1.5% of total transacted volume).
Million-dollar HDB flats have been kept below 40 units for a consecutive 4th month.
Do you agree that the resale HDB price seems to have peaked?
Do you believe that resale HDB price would drop back to the pre-COVID period?
Do you believe the current HDB resale price is unhealthy?
How has HDB resale price changed in May 2023?
Based on SRX compilation, month-on-month HDB resale price has increased by 0.3% (April 2023: 1.1%) and year-on-year increased by 7.2%, and resale volume by 4.8%.
The price increase was very gradual and backed by healthy growth in resale volume.
Does the observed resale price growth apply across the whole of Singapore?
In May 2023, year-on-year price increase was 7.3% in mature estate and 8.1% in non-mature estate.
HDB resale price increased by 0.8% for 3 room flats, 0.7% for 4 room flats and 0.6% for Executive but decreased by 0.6% for 5 room flats type.
How about million-dollar flats?
Based on the SRX compilation in May 2023, there were 34 units (1.5% of total transacted volume (April: 37 units)).
Million-dollar HDB flats have been kept below 40 units for a consecutive 3rd month.
Do you believe the flat owner should sell their MOP flat now to take advantage of the higher resale market?
What do you believe is causing resale HDB prices to stabilise?
Do you believe that a slower HDB resale price would make it more difficult for upward social mobility?
Is HDB resale price really out of control?
We read month-on-month HDB resale increased by 1.4% (Jan 2023 vs Jan 2022) and year-on-year by 8.7% (2023 vs 2022), and resale volume increased by 5.4% (2023 vs 2022).
See! HDB price is out of control!
Let’s take a closer look at the numbers!
If we look at the row of figures for Jan 2023 and Jan 2022, we see a slightly different picture. 3 rooms performed better, 4 rooms about the same, and 5 rooms and Executive were worse off.
If we were to look at the changes over the months, especially the last 3 months, we could hardly see any month to month price change that exceeds 0.5%.
What does this imply?
When reading statistics, we have to be careful and read the details. We should only apply what is relevant to our cases in point.
HDB resale price is still increasing but it is flattering and increasing at a much slower pace.
If these price changes continue, and with the influx of 100,000 flats between now and 2025, what do you think would be the result?